And the winner is...

Obama takes Iowa and the rest of the country as the polls predicted. As of right now with 96% of the vote in, Obama leads with 52% of the vote, which is 816,429 votes. Romney has 46% of the vote, which is 727,928 votes. Not too many surprises when it came to this election, but it was still close.
From the exit poll data, it shows that women account for 60% of Obama votes compared to 44% of men. Gender could have had a major part after all.

As for the house races, they also went as predicted. Redistricting pushed the 3rd District west, making it more Republican, which made the race there a close race because the 3rd District also has Des Moines, which typically votes Democrat. But the Republicans prevailed there and also in the 4th District. The 1st and 2nd districts on the eastern side of the state stayed with their Democratic incumbents making Iowa a split state in terms of representation.

Today Is The Big Day!

It's almost finally over. After all the commercials, phone calls, door knocking, and polarization, it all comes down to this. While we may not have a winner tonight, the campaigning ends today. As of today, Talking Points Memo has Obama leading by 2.3 points, well within the margin of error. To all our readers, go out and vote today!

18 Hours!

As I was browsing for the latest news on Iowa, the Des Moines Register headline on their home page jumped out: Breaking News "Final Stretch in Iowa Gives Edge to Obama." I found this interesting because of Everett's previous post on how the Des Moines Register officially endorsed Romney. What I also found extremely interesting was how right at the top, there is an ad saying "Iowa Votes For Barack Tomorrow!" paid for by Obama for America of course. Just goes to show anyone can be bought out. I even screen shot it.

For the poll itself, Obama has 47 percent while Romney has 42, for a total of five percentage points apart. Different strategists from each party are trying to weigh in the importance of winning Iowa's six electoral votes. Some say that without Iowa and Ohio, it would be hard to win and others say that Romney doesn't need Iowa to win the election. Poor Iowa.

With 18 hours left until official voting time there is still time for people to change their minds. Keep tuned!

Des Moines Register

Just the other day, the Des Moines Register officially endorsed Mitt Romney for President, who is the first Republican to receive their endorsement since Nixon in 1972. The Register also endorsed Romney for the Republican nomination ten months ago.

Register's Endorsement

So the question is, does this matter? Newspapers and journals are a dying outlet for news, as everything is transitioning to TV and the Internet. Yet at the same time, I believe this to be significant. The Des Moines Register, whether it is a hard copy or their website, is the main local news source for Iowans. Mitt Romney is the first Republican to receive their endorsement in FORTY years. While partisan voters will not change, I believe this development may sway some independent voters and those on the fence.

After all, let's not forget how the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsed Gov. Scott Walker during the recall. After his endorsement, many of his ads came straight from the Sentinel. And good ol' Scottie won by a larger margin than his ACTUAL election in 2010. But I digress.

Less than a week guys! Currently Iowa is leaning Obama by 4.4%. Rock the Vote!

Romney: The Comeback Kid

Maybe the presidential debates DO mean something! After the second debate this week, most polls have Romney leading Obama. Gallup, one of the most trusted pollsters, has Romney up by 7 nation wide: 52-45. Meanwhile, ABC News/Washington Post has Romney ahead of the President 49-46.

Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post

Yet, there is still one more debate, and 18 days left until election day. Romney was leading in Iowa earlier this week, but now Obama is up by 4.2 points. The fluctuation in these polls is insane, and I am pretty sure that early voting is not taken into consideration for most of these polls. We all need to remember that in this electoral college system, the national popular vote does not mean a guaranteed win. More to come soon! (or constantly, if you are watching the polls...)

Electoral Map

It's Crunch Time!

According to WeAskAmerica, President Obama and Governor Romney are currently tied in Iowa. Many people seem to think that these debates don't do much, but there was a major shift nationally after Romney's victory in the first debate. However, it also raises the question: are the polls even accurate?

Swing State Polls

On a side not, Romney seems to be closing in on demographics that usually vote Democrat. In 2008, Obama won the "women vote" by 13 points, yet the polls say that Obama now only leads by 2 points for women in America.

The second debate is tonight from 8pm to 9:30pm central time. Let's see if this causes another shift!

Polls - Take 'em or Leave 'em

Our blog's poll asks the question, "Who will win the race in Iowa?" I can assure you that 20% of the people in Iowa will NOT vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party, so do not trust our poll. However, having Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied is not much of a stretch, as the latest polls have Obama up by 2.4 points. Check out this link to see polls in all the swing states! This is by far my favorite source for polls and seeing how each candidate is doing in the Electoral College. 

Map of US - Polls

As of now, neither candidate has the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Too many states are a toss up, and some sources are even saying Romney is up by a point nationally. Romney is also leading among independents 44 to 32.

Romney in the Lead

Don't forget to watch the Vice Presidential Debate tonight!

Obama's Lead Falls

Obama's lead in Iowa is slipping, and it may be because of the Presidential debate. The President was leading Mitt Romney by four points last week, but according to Rasmussen, Obama has 49 and Romney has 47. This is well within the margin of error of all polling, so this is literally anyone's state now.

Rasmussen

So what does this mean? In the end, I don't think the debates will really have much influence in the polls. President Obama is surely not going to be unprepared or flat as he was previously. I believe by the time all the debates are over, and after all the nonstop political ads, the polls will be so close that they won't truly matter. We will just have to wait until the night of November 6 to find out, but we will keep you updated with any developments!

Battle of the Sexes

It could just be that whatever sex shows up to the polls on election day could turn out to choose whose Iowa's electoral votes will go to. Iowa has been seeing a major gender gap between candidates with women favoring Obama by 13 points and Obama losing with 6 points to male voters according to the Des Moines Register. Men are more concerned with the economy and the deficit and Romney's comprehensive plan seems to address their concerns, while women are concerned with health care and believe Obama is more qualified to handle their needs. 

The fact that women in Iowa are more in favor of Obama could be the reason that he is leading the polls by about 4 points. But the race is still a toss up, and in 32 days a lot can happen. 

Iowa's votes can literally be decided by either men or women.

The First Presidential Debate

After a heated debate, in which the moderator could not keep control of either candidate, nearly every major news source is declaring challenger Mitt Romney the victor.

Liberal news anchor Chris Matthews even said, "What was Mitt Romney doing? He was winning..."

Even Bill Maher tweeted, "i can't believe I'm saying this, but Obama looks like he DOES need a teleprompter." (Tweet has since been deleted).

President Obama went into the debate leading in the polls in 9 of 10 swing states. He only had a 4 point lead in Iowa in the most recent poll. So the question is, will Barack Obama's lead in Iowa drop after this debate? Stay tuned everyone!

Iowa Presidential Watch

Early Voting in Iowa

Early Voting started Thursday of last week in Iowa, and experts say that 2 in 5 people will vote early in the swing state. Many people vote early because they will be busy on election day, but some just want to get it out of the way. Both candidates have realized this and acted on it.

President Obama had its "Be The First" push, meaning the campaign got as many voters to vote absentee as possible. This also parallels the Iowa Caucus, as it is the first in the Presidential caucuses. They have been targeting college students and party activists.

The Romney campaign has taken a different approach. They are confident that their main voter base will show up to the polls on Nov. 6, and they are sending out mass mailings that include absentee ballot applications to swing voters. They have also been conducting a large phone and door knocking operation to identify Republicans and get them out to the polls on election day, and to also spread the Conservative message to independent voters.

These different strategies have led to a 5 to 1 ratio of Democrats and Republicans that have requested absentee ballots. Fox News says that, as of last Wednesday, 119,318 Democrats have requested absentee ballots, 24,909 Republicans, and roughly 41,000 independent voters.

As of today, Obama leads Romney 49 to 45. It is still anyone's state, and the race for votes has only started.

Absentee Voting - Iowa

Tug of War

The latest poll released in Iowa shows Obama and Romney at almost a dead lock. The last two polls released over the last couple weeks have shown Obama ahead slightly, but within the sampling error, and the other shows Obama ahead outside of the sampling error, but not by much. Apparently up to 10% of those polled told the pollsters that they have a preference, but it could be swayed up to Election Day. This could get down to who makes more appearances in Iowa between now and Election Day, or who doesnt mess up as much. Obama has made 13 appearances, while Romney has made 10.

In other news, early voting began last Thursday for Iowans, Vice pres candidate Paul Ryan is set to tour Iowa next week, and the Iowa Hawkeyes beat the Minnesota Gophers.

Poll: Des Moines Register Poll
Info taken from CNN.com

Ann Romney patches things up...

Ann Romney last Thursday took a tour through Iowa making several radio and TV interviews. She focused her air time mostly on trying to show what a great guy her husband was because of the recent secret tape scandal. She illustrated what a family man Mitt is and how his whole life he's proved that he is a stand up man. She also had a message for her fellow Republicans who criticized how Mitt was running his campaign, "Stop it. This is hard. You want to try it? Get in the ring."

After the 2008 election, Ann documented a vow saying she would never do this again. But yet it was her who urged Mitt to run again. She believes that he is the right man to fix the country's problems.

With the election 43 days away, will Ann be able to stand strong for her husband or will the pressures of campaigning be too much for her as they were in 2008?

www.desmoinesregister.com

Obama Ahead in Polls for Iowa

According to NBC News, Obama leads Romney by 8 points; Obama 50% and Romney 42%. The poll also says that Obama leads among the Independent vote, and there is a "considerable" gender gap in Iowa. I'm not sure what a "considerable" amount actually is, but that's the liberal media for you. The most important issue in almost everyone's mind this election is the economy, and Obama and Romney are essentially tied in Iowa based upon economic plans. Let's not forget that the margin of error in most polls is 5%, so at this point it is anyone's win. Let's see how both candidates handle their campaigns in these last 44 days.

NBC News Polls

Iowa to Decide Next President?

In the popular vote, Iowa seems to not have any particular pattern when it comes to siding with a party. In 2008, Barack Obama received 54%, and John McCain received 44.7%. In 2004, George W. Bush won with 50.3% of the vote, while John Kerry had 49.7%. In 2000, Al Gore won by only .4% of the popular vote with a total of 50.2%.

Voting History In Iowa

It seems as though it is alternating, so perhaps it is Mitt Romney's turn to win Iowa? Public Policy Voting reported that Obama was up 2 points on August 26, but Rassmussen reported on August 8 that Romney was up 2 points.

Real Clear Politics - Iowa