Des Moines Register

Just the other day, the Des Moines Register officially endorsed Mitt Romney for President, who is the first Republican to receive their endorsement since Nixon in 1972. The Register also endorsed Romney for the Republican nomination ten months ago.

Register's Endorsement

So the question is, does this matter? Newspapers and journals are a dying outlet for news, as everything is transitioning to TV and the Internet. Yet at the same time, I believe this to be significant. The Des Moines Register, whether it is a hard copy or their website, is the main local news source for Iowans. Mitt Romney is the first Republican to receive their endorsement in FORTY years. While partisan voters will not change, I believe this development may sway some independent voters and those on the fence.

After all, let's not forget how the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsed Gov. Scott Walker during the recall. After his endorsement, many of his ads came straight from the Sentinel. And good ol' Scottie won by a larger margin than his ACTUAL election in 2010. But I digress.

Less than a week guys! Currently Iowa is leaning Obama by 4.4%. Rock the Vote!

Romney: The Comeback Kid

Maybe the presidential debates DO mean something! After the second debate this week, most polls have Romney leading Obama. Gallup, one of the most trusted pollsters, has Romney up by 7 nation wide: 52-45. Meanwhile, ABC News/Washington Post has Romney ahead of the President 49-46.

Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post

Yet, there is still one more debate, and 18 days left until election day. Romney was leading in Iowa earlier this week, but now Obama is up by 4.2 points. The fluctuation in these polls is insane, and I am pretty sure that early voting is not taken into consideration for most of these polls. We all need to remember that in this electoral college system, the national popular vote does not mean a guaranteed win. More to come soon! (or constantly, if you are watching the polls...)

Electoral Map

It's Crunch Time!

According to WeAskAmerica, President Obama and Governor Romney are currently tied in Iowa. Many people seem to think that these debates don't do much, but there was a major shift nationally after Romney's victory in the first debate. However, it also raises the question: are the polls even accurate?

Swing State Polls

On a side not, Romney seems to be closing in on demographics that usually vote Democrat. In 2008, Obama won the "women vote" by 13 points, yet the polls say that Obama now only leads by 2 points for women in America.

The second debate is tonight from 8pm to 9:30pm central time. Let's see if this causes another shift!

Polls - Take 'em or Leave 'em

Our blog's poll asks the question, "Who will win the race in Iowa?" I can assure you that 20% of the people in Iowa will NOT vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party, so do not trust our poll. However, having Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied is not much of a stretch, as the latest polls have Obama up by 2.4 points. Check out this link to see polls in all the swing states! This is by far my favorite source for polls and seeing how each candidate is doing in the Electoral College. 

Map of US - Polls

As of now, neither candidate has the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Too many states are a toss up, and some sources are even saying Romney is up by a point nationally. Romney is also leading among independents 44 to 32.

Romney in the Lead

Don't forget to watch the Vice Presidential Debate tonight!

Obama's Lead Falls

Obama's lead in Iowa is slipping, and it may be because of the Presidential debate. The President was leading Mitt Romney by four points last week, but according to Rasmussen, Obama has 49 and Romney has 47. This is well within the margin of error of all polling, so this is literally anyone's state now.

Rasmussen

So what does this mean? In the end, I don't think the debates will really have much influence in the polls. President Obama is surely not going to be unprepared or flat as he was previously. I believe by the time all the debates are over, and after all the nonstop political ads, the polls will be so close that they won't truly matter. We will just have to wait until the night of November 6 to find out, but we will keep you updated with any developments!

Battle of the Sexes

It could just be that whatever sex shows up to the polls on election day could turn out to choose whose Iowa's electoral votes will go to. Iowa has been seeing a major gender gap between candidates with women favoring Obama by 13 points and Obama losing with 6 points to male voters according to the Des Moines Register. Men are more concerned with the economy and the deficit and Romney's comprehensive plan seems to address their concerns, while women are concerned with health care and believe Obama is more qualified to handle their needs. 

The fact that women in Iowa are more in favor of Obama could be the reason that he is leading the polls by about 4 points. But the race is still a toss up, and in 32 days a lot can happen. 

Iowa's votes can literally be decided by either men or women.

The First Presidential Debate

After a heated debate, in which the moderator could not keep control of either candidate, nearly every major news source is declaring challenger Mitt Romney the victor.

Liberal news anchor Chris Matthews even said, "What was Mitt Romney doing? He was winning..."

Even Bill Maher tweeted, "i can't believe I'm saying this, but Obama looks like he DOES need a teleprompter." (Tweet has since been deleted).

President Obama went into the debate leading in the polls in 9 of 10 swing states. He only had a 4 point lead in Iowa in the most recent poll. So the question is, will Barack Obama's lead in Iowa drop after this debate? Stay tuned everyone!

Iowa Presidential Watch

Early Voting in Iowa

Early Voting started Thursday of last week in Iowa, and experts say that 2 in 5 people will vote early in the swing state. Many people vote early because they will be busy on election day, but some just want to get it out of the way. Both candidates have realized this and acted on it.

President Obama had its "Be The First" push, meaning the campaign got as many voters to vote absentee as possible. This also parallels the Iowa Caucus, as it is the first in the Presidential caucuses. They have been targeting college students and party activists.

The Romney campaign has taken a different approach. They are confident that their main voter base will show up to the polls on Nov. 6, and they are sending out mass mailings that include absentee ballot applications to swing voters. They have also been conducting a large phone and door knocking operation to identify Republicans and get them out to the polls on election day, and to also spread the Conservative message to independent voters.

These different strategies have led to a 5 to 1 ratio of Democrats and Republicans that have requested absentee ballots. Fox News says that, as of last Wednesday, 119,318 Democrats have requested absentee ballots, 24,909 Republicans, and roughly 41,000 independent voters.

As of today, Obama leads Romney 49 to 45. It is still anyone's state, and the race for votes has only started.

Absentee Voting - Iowa

Tug of War

The latest poll released in Iowa shows Obama and Romney at almost a dead lock. The last two polls released over the last couple weeks have shown Obama ahead slightly, but within the sampling error, and the other shows Obama ahead outside of the sampling error, but not by much. Apparently up to 10% of those polled told the pollsters that they have a preference, but it could be swayed up to Election Day. This could get down to who makes more appearances in Iowa between now and Election Day, or who doesnt mess up as much. Obama has made 13 appearances, while Romney has made 10.

In other news, early voting began last Thursday for Iowans, Vice pres candidate Paul Ryan is set to tour Iowa next week, and the Iowa Hawkeyes beat the Minnesota Gophers.

Poll: Des Moines Register Poll
Info taken from CNN.com